Ambitious.
But, he lays out, convincingly, why negotiators at the climate summit in Bali must abandon these 65-67% by 2050 or 80% by 2050 targets, since the science is years out of date.
Such targets don't take into account feedback effects.
- We've known for two years that, as the permafrost in northern Canada and Siberia melts, methane will be released, augmenting climate change.
- Soil bacteria heat up, more CO2.
- At the North Pole, with more melting, sunlight will be absorbed, rather than reflected by white ice.
- Tropical forests die off, releasing more carbon.
Feedback accounts for 18% of global warming. Monbiot is saying we can't keep hoping for the best-case scenario. We have to plan for feedback effects kicking in, and build our efforts around them.
We must confront a challenge that is as great and as pressing as the rise of the Axis powers. Had we thrown up our hands then, as many people are tempted to do today, you would be reading this paper in German. Though the war often seemed impossible to win, when the political will was mobilised strange and implausible things began to happen. The US economy was spun round on a dime in 1942 as civilian manufacturing was switched to military production. The state took on greater powers than it had exercised before. Impossible policies suddenly became achievable.
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