Bits And Bobs

- The Refugee Council, the TUC, STAR (Student Action for Refugees), and other organisations are calling for the government to allow asylum seekers to work. This would help intergration, reskill refugees to offer a better future, and combat destitution. As well, the Coventry Refugee Centre is thinking of bringing this project to Coventry. Currently, the only overnight housing for destitute refugees and asylum seekers is at the Peace House's night shelter.

- A street in Birmingham (Green Lane in Great Barr) has cut its energy consumption by 20% (an average of £200 in bills per household). Caroline Handley told BRMB radio: "It was a bit difficult because a lot of it is behavioural changes and then suddenly you're thinking I can leave this on, I can't leave that on. But over the 12 months gradually you just do things without thinking now."

- Gordon Brown giving a speech to a joint session of Congress ... bless. Enjoy it whilst it lasts, Gordon, since the centre of power in the world economy is moving to India, Korea, China, Japan, Singapore, and Indonesia. Steve Bell is skeptical about the UK closing its own tax havens, but when you're redrawing the rules, it's "the perfect time to build important [arms control] nonproliferation goals into the world’s banking system."

A few other things to read:

- Saudi Arabia's oil production peaked in 2005.
- Libby Brookes on the 100th anniversary of the war on drugs
- A fifth anniversary next week
- PeaceJam is this weekend in Bradford
- A victory for Tesco over competition and market share
- The TUC has a new pamphlet out: Unlocking Green Enterprise

Peak Wood And Peak Oil

Today is the second day of a three-day world future energy summit in Abu Dhabi. The opening speech of the conference was given by Willem-Alexander, the crown prince of the Netherlands:

"When the Roman Empire finally collapsed, large parts of Europe had been deforested. Acres of forestland had been cleared for farmland and to provide firewood. Wood and food were essential, to maintain the Roman Empire. To meet their short term needs, the Romans overexploited their prime energy resource. They did not think about the consequences for later generations. So the demise of a seemingly invincible civilization was partially due to the unsustainable use of their prime energy resource. The question is, are we going to be any wiser?"

"What the Romans were experiencing, we would now describe as peak wood. Reaching a point of maximum production after which it enters terminal decline. We are now facing a century of at least four undesirable peaks, peak oil, peak gas, peak coal and peak uranium. Mountaineers may be proud to conquer peaks, but there is no reason whatsoever for us to be proud. We can, however, change the course of history. The technologies we need are there"

Letter To Editor -- The "Triple Crunch"

I've had a letter published in the Coventry Observer and Coventry Telegraph this week:

"We are facing not just a credit crunch, but two other crunches as well (global warming and peak oil). You can read about a plan -- the Green New Deal – to address these crunches at the website of the new economics foundation."

"Among other things, we need a low-carbon energy system that makes every building a power station. We need a 'carbon army' of workers. We need a windfall tax on oil and gas companies. We need local authority green bonds, green gilts and green family savings bonds. Instead of mega-banks (the new Lloyds HBOS) making mega-mistakes, we need to break up discredited financial institutions."

"In short, we can’t just tinker with the system. We need a sense of purpose to restore public trust, and to refocus on using capital on public priorities and sustainability."

Scott Redding
Coventry Green Party

"Backyard Sustainability"

Coventry's Waste Strategy

- The film screening last night, of "The Power of Community", went well. About 20 people showed up at Pride. Meetings for Transition Earlsdon will be fortnightly, with the next one two weeks from yesterday. Jo Rathbone (02476 678735 or jorathbone@phonecoop.coop) is the person to contact. If you're interested in the wider Transition Coventry activities outside of Earlsdon, Ervin Menyhart (07850 045799 or ervinsmac@mac.com) would be the fellow to ring or email.

- I've been invited to a "Special Waste Summit" on the Coventry draft waste strategy later today at the Council House. My invitation letter tells me it's an "excellent opportunity" to have a "proactive discussion" thereby "further enhancing the consultation process." At least they'll feed me lunch. I think real consultation would be having this kind of meeting before a draft strategy is released. I want to find out how much of the "waste" budget will be devoted to reducing waste and reusing products.

- I'll also be attending the ward forum meeting tonight in Cheylesmore. It's from 7pm to 9pm, and will be at the Cheylesmore Community Centre, on Arundel Road (CV3 5JX).

Food Security And "Expended Energy"

This was a thought-provoking piece on BBC News yesterday:

The Second Law of Thermodynamics is about order; the Universe is inexorably heading to increased randomness and disorder. For practical purposes, this does not have to be a problem because we can increase order locally by hard work, by expending energy. But in the process we create greater disorder (heat and waste) elsewhere. If there is plenty of energy and plenty of "elsewhere", then we don't have to worry. Indeed, for our whole existence, we largely haven't worried; in fact the whole world order, built on trade and economics, hasn't worried.

A recent study looking at Nicaraguan coffee production and processing showed that the total energy embodied in coffee exported to several countries - though not all - was not compensated by the dollar price paid for that energy. Essentially, the conclusion was that the country is exporting subsidised energy.

The orderliness required to plant, grow, harvest, process, pack, store, monitor, administer, transport, display and sell the produce in a supermarket is simply staggering, and the expended energy intense. As an example, tomato production in the US consumes four times as many calories as the calorific value of the tomatoes created.

Surely at some point, let's say between $50 and $500 per barrel of oil, it no longer makes any sense to simultaneously export and import food high in embodied energy.

Rising Energy Bills And Renewable Heat

The city council in Coventry has voted to seek a meeting with energy minister Malcolm Wicks over rising energy prices.

The reason that energy bills are rising in Coventry is the fuel that we use. We heat our homes with oil and gas, but we are entering an era that will be defined by a peak in the supply of oil, as well as a growing dependence on a few countries (Russia, Iran) with large supplies of natural gas.

In response to this, we need energy security. Energy security won’t come from hopeful letters from the city council to Malcolm Wicks. Energy security won’t come from Gordon Brown urging Saudi Arabia to pump even more oil.

Energy security will come from investments in insulation, in far more efficient white goods, and in renewable heat. We need a multi-year, multi-million pound public/private partnership to make these three measures affordable to working-class families in Coventry.

- The Green Party on Kirklees Council (in Huddersfield) introduced the country’s first universally-free insulation scheme. Any household, no matter what their income, qualifies for free cavity wall and loft insulation. It will save over £4.5 million in fuel bills, and it will create over 100 new local jobs.

- Coventry could be a pilot city for only A and B rated white goods (ovens, refrigerators, freezers, dishwashers) to be sold in stores.

- We need to start thinking about not just renewable energy, but renewable heat. This can include solar thermal collectors, which heat water in pipes on your roof; wood-burning boilers; or air/ground source heat pumps. A basic solar thermal system roughly costs £1 800 and provide 80% of a typical family’s hot water during summer months. A 20kW wood boiler can cost £5,000.

Food Prices, Petrol Prices

100 lorry convoys are protesting today around Britain, with hauliers talking about "the hardest time we've ever had," crisis and catastrophe, that "they need help."

With a drastically-higher cost of petrol, we can drive less.

In contrast, tens of millions of the world's poor could die of hunger as a result of soaring food prices.

The Guardian is starting a five-day series of articles -- on the impact of global food price rises -- by looking at Egypt.

Adel Beshai, an Egyptian economist: "It has to do with the food-fuel equation. The real issue now is that the price of oil hit the $100 mark and the price of oil will continue to rise. There is now competition between fuel consumption in the developed countries, where food is being turned into cheaper fuel, and food consumption in poorer ones where they want to eat what is being turned into fuel."

A higher price for oil means a higher price for fertiliser, higher prices for tractors and farm machinery, and higher prices for pesticides (which rely on oil). The US diverting 30% of its corn crop -- to fill SUV tanks with biofuel rather than feed the world-- isn't helping either. Barack Obama represents the corn belt, make of that what you will.

The other factor is more of the world eating meat, eggs and dairy products. Over 30% of the world's grain goes to feeding animals rather than people directly. If we had a more global vegan diet, we wouldn't be having this kind of strain.

Yes, we have to pay for higher petrol, and we have to pay 50p more per portion of rice at certain curry houses. But what we're experiencing is nothing compared to the impact of food price rises in the developing world.

Video: Corn and rising food bills

$200 A Barrel Oil

Goldman Sachs predicted last week that the price could rise to $200 a barrel over the next year.

Gordon Brown, in trying to show he "gets" the results of the local elections, and Crewe/Nantwich, says he's "incredibly focused" on oil.

"It is a scandal," Brown says, "that 40 per cent of the oil is controlled by Opec and that their decisions can restrict the supply of oil to the rest of the world." For an educated guy, he doesn't seem to get it. Perhaps OPEC can't turn on the tap anymore.

I mean, Brown keeps talking about making the right long-term tough decisions for the country. So, why has he avoided the big one? For ten years as chancellor, he avoided carrots to make the existing housing stock more environmentally-friendly. He avoided carrots to encourage the use of electric/hybrid cars. Why did people think he was going to address this when he became PM?

With oil providing 95% of the energy used in transport, what bigger, long-term, decision is there than peak oil?

Video: Matthew Simmons on peak oil

Our National Free Insulation Policy

The Green Party has put out a statement about the oil supply disruption in Scotland:

Green Party Principal Speaker Caroline Lucas today slammed the UK Government for not taking measures to provide more secure energy provision for the UK in the face of the weekend strike by workers at the Grangemouth oil refinery - labeling them "incompetent" and "ill prepared" for fuel crises. Dr. Lucas, whose 2006 report 'Fuelling a Food Crisis' examined the dependence of the EU's food supplies on oil, said:

"In 2006, I asked several Government ministries what steps they were taking to prepare for a decrease in national fuel supplies. None of the organisations contacted gave a serious response: the DTI and Cabinet Office both refusing to answer the question, ridiculously citing restrictions under the Freedom of Information Act"

"Only the Green Party has the initiatives and policies that would protect the British public from suffering the consequences of a sudden decrease in fuel supplies."

"Our proposed national free insulation policy would ensure that homeowners can warm their homes for a fraction of the domestic fuel needed in uninsulated homes, and the Green Party policy to shift the UK towards a sustainable energy economy would mean that our homes' energy would be increasingly off-grid, readily available and not dependent on fossil fuel supply. Crucially, only the Green Party supports locally sourced food production, ensuring food security for communities is not dependent on long haul transport and the whims of the fuel market."

Peak Oil And Coventry

When leaflets from other political parties come through your door, are they telling you about peak oil? Are they being up front about how our society is going to have to fundamentally change? Or is the "environmental" part of their leaflet all about picking up litter?

Peak oil is the point where half of the all the world's oil that ever can be extracted, has been extracted. The remaining half will be harder/more environmentally damaging/more expensive to extract.

Part of what we're seeing in world oil prices is down to the US dollar (a weak dollar means that people invest in other items -- gold/oil), partly down to a lack of investment in oil infrastructure, and partly down to peak oil.

World demand is galloping ahead year on year, and we will increasingly have month to month supply disruptions. India, China and the US can't keep consuming more and more oil, if supply can't keep up.

As such, if oil/petrol prices are low, compared to what they'll be in a few years, we need to start preparing for an era that is profoundly and intensely local.

What we can do in Coventry to prepare for peak oil:

- We need to invest in more walking, cycling and public transit infrastructure, since we will see less car use.
- We'll have less food distribution centred on driving to-and-from supermarkets. Supermarkets themselves may face challenges (finding petrol for all those lorries of refrigerated fruit and veg).
- Plastic is made from oil. We need to reduce our use of plastic drastically, and recycle the plastic that we do use, rather than burning it.
- We will increasingly consume food produced closest to our homes, and we need more urban allotments and farms to provide this. Following on, we need more food preparation skills on a mass level. This will mean more classes in school on food preparation and nutrition, and incorporating food gardens into the design of new schools.

Big Oil Is Getting Twitchy

If cigarette companies can get sued for suppressing information about the harmful health effects of smoking ...

Shell Full Year Results

You can read their full Q4 and full year results here.

Despite spending billions on exploration, their total oil production was down 7%, excluding the tarsands.

"Production is getting more expensive as easily accessible resources become more difficult to find. The industry reckons that the cost of production has gone up from $5 a barrel in 2000 to $14 in 2006 and many analysts believe that oil company profits may have peaked."

"Shell and Solar Century were among the 150 companies that recently signed up to the hard-hitting Bali Declaration. It is vital that companies act consistently with the rhetoric in such declarations, and as I have told Shell senior management on several occasions, an all-out assault on the Canadian tar sands and extracting oil from coal is completely inconsistent with climate protection ... Unless fossil-fuel energy companies evolve their core activities meaningfully, we are in deep trouble." - Jeremy Leggett, chief executive of Solarcentury, December 2007

Green Collar Jobs

The Guardian today has a short article on "green collar jobs" -- manual-labour jobs in the new ecological economy, from mending bicycles to cladding buildings in solar panels.

Pat Thomas, the editor of the Ecologist, is quoted as saying that:

"A sustainable society won't be able to provide full employment because in a world where we don't produce more than we need, there is less to buy and there are fewer services required."

This is the elephant in the room that we need to talk more about.

If we buy less, and we do more ourselves (growing and cooking our food, making and repairing our clothes, building our own buildings, or creating healthcare that does not rely on petrochemical-based pills), we'll have less consumption. We equate a booming economy with vigorous consumption. If we have a decline in consumption, current common sense dictates that output will drop, jobs will be lost, and incomes will fall.

The existing economic structure (which the main three political parties accept) operates as a major disincentive to sustainable consumption.

So, we have a choice. Do we stick with putting endless growth in consumption at the heart of our society, or do we think about things in a different way?

If economic consumption can be decoupled from material consumption, if people purchased high-value services instead of resource-intensive artefacts, if consumer commodities become value heavy and materially light, then we could preserve economic stability and still meet environmental and social targets. If people accepted higher taxes and invested more in the future, we might even be able to preserve economic stability without a massive growth in private consumption. But these are all big ‘ifs’.

One World Week 2008

One World Week is taking place from the 18th to the 26th of January at the University of Warwick. It is billed as the world's "largest student-run global event."

Things that stand out from the programme's first few days include:

- a theatre workshop by Graeae, a disabled-led theatre company that profiles the skills of actors, writers and directors with physical and sensory impairments
- "Darfur in Focus" - a forum focusing on the treatment and rehabilitation of the 2.5 million people driven out of their homes and 200,000 living in refugee camps, Saturday 19th January, 330pm to 430pm, Warwick Arts Centre
- "A Crude Awakening" - a film on peak oil, Saturday 19th January, 5pm to 730pm, Warwick Arts Centre

Oil Hits $100/Barrel

"I'd put my money on solar energy ... I hope we don't have to wait til oil and coal run out before we tackle that." -- Thomas Edison, in conversation with Henry Ford and Harvey Firestone, March 1931

"Ecomerge" At Portland State University

Ecomerge is a blog created by students at Portland State University in the US. They've linked to a post that I wrote, highlighting how Vaxjo, a city in Sweden, is trying to become carbon-neutral.
It's a great example of how we can share information through the Internet.

Portland itself, whilst I've only passed through it on the train (in 1995, from San Francisco to Vancouver), fascinates me. Their city council had a recent task force on peak oil's impact on Portland. Local activism focuses on things like old growth forest preservation, and then awareness can be channelled into campaigns for sustainable wood for housing developments. Heck, even their local paper criticises mayoral candidates for not having a strong enough position on cycling.

Oil Prices And UN Development Goals

Oil prices have rised from $22 per barrel in 2003 to $96 in Asian trading on Thursday morning.

What the UN Development Programme is finding is that the high oil price is threatening the Millennium Development Goals.

Between 2002 and 2005, the households interviewed suffered some dramatic price increases, paying ... 171 percent more for cooking fuels, 120 percent more for transportation, 67 percent more for electricity and 55 percent more for lighting fuels. While the urban poor tend to be worse off since they do not have the alternative of collecting fuel wood or biomass, the rural poor are no better off, since they are more vulnerable to higher prices for lighting fuels, especially in unelectrified villages.

In the short term, industrial countries will be disrupted, with perhaps more petrol protests as in 2000 , but the UK will be better able to absorb/withstand oil price rises, whilst other countries, especially the poorest of the global poor, will struggle. In the long-term, well, we need to wake up to the threat of peak oil.

Coventry And Peak Oil

The Germany-based Energy Watch Group is releasing a study on global oil production in London today.

Their report says that world oil production has already peaked and will fall by 7% a year. It also warns that extreme shortages of fossil fuels will lead to wars and social breakdown.

- Coventry doesn't have a plan to deal with peak oil.
- The draft climate change strategy, out for consultation, doesn't mention peak oil.
- The city council has a "risk register" with threats evaluated for impact (1 to 5 points, 5 being high) and "how soon" (1 to 5, 5 being more than once a year). Peak oil is not on the risk register at all.

Other cities (notably, Portland, in the US) have had citizen task forces on peak oil and peak energy -- holding 40 meetings and involving dozens of policymakers, experts, stakeholders and interested citizens in gathering information on peak oil and preparing a report for public comment.

It's the kind of thing that we need to do in Coventry, so we're ready when higher energy prices come.

The EWG study relies more on actual oil production data which, it says, are more reliable than estimates of reserves still in the ground. The group says official industry estimates put global reserves at about 1.255 gigabarrels - equivalent to 42 years' supply at current consumption rates. But it thinks the figure is only about two thirds of that.

Jeremy Leggett, one of Britain's leading environmentalists and the author of Half Gone, a book about "peak oil" - defined as the moment when maximum production is reached, said that both the UK government and the energy industry were in "institutionalised denial" and that action should have been taken sooner.

Coventry Climate Change Strategy

The council has, finally, come out with a draft climate change strategy. It can be found here. It's a 65 page PDF file, so you'll need Adobe Acrobat reader.

The consultation period will last until the end of December. Then, it goes back to the cabinet/council/Coventry Partnership, and the final version will be adopted in March 2008.

I haven't read the entire document in minute detail. But, on first impressions, there are some good ideas (green roofs, microgeneration), some key admissions (that the council is only 3% of the carbon footprint of the city), and some missed opportunities (how will peak oil interact with climate change ... no mentioning of oil in 65 pages).

Read it, and maybe we can start a discussion amongst the comments to this post. Alternatively, in a few weeks, I can post a longer analysis of the document.