Ed Miliband At "Age Of Stupid" Premiere

Ed Miliband is challenged by "Age of Stupid" director Franny Armstrong; the movie's star, Pete Postlethwaite, also pledges his support to the "Not Stupid" campaign by vowing to return his OBE if the UK government fails to secure urgent and drastic global decarbonisation at Copenhagen:

Tour Around The Blogs

- Richard Lawson on how narcotics, the insurgency and the Afghan government are interlinked.

- James Forsyth on Labour's support amongst public and private sector workers ... compared with support amongst the "economically inactive."

- Iain Martin on Gordon Brown's view that the house price bubble had nothing to do with cheap money and banks out of control. Iain Dale listened to today's You and Yours on Radio 4, where Brown nearly lost his temper, insisting again that it wasn't at all down to him.

- Sam Coates on what might happen, Lib-Dem wise, in the event of a hung parliament.

- Billy Bragg and Dave Rowntree write in the Guardian about the Featured Artists Coalition, "a campaigning organisation that seeks to achieve fair remuneration in exchange for widespread access. Our target is not the music fan but the businesses that are making huge profits by exploiting artistic content for which they pay little or nothing at all."

Finally, Socialist Unity highlight the upcoming climate protests here in Coventry.

Faith Leaders Urge Brown On Gaza

A variety of faith leaders (Jewish, Muslim, a C of E bishop, Baptist and Methodist) are calling for an immediate ceasefire, unfettered humanitarian access to Gaza, and for Gordon Brown to take further action to end the suffering of "the powerless and the vulnerable" ... Rabbi Danny Rich, chief executive of Liberal Judaism, said:

"I am convinced that the continuing violence in the region will exacerbate tensions, nurture hatred, and make more difficult a peaceful resolution which is in the interests of both the Palestinian people and the State of Israel. I believe that, in accordance with my Jewish teaching and humanitarian instinct, the appropriate reaction is to call for an immediate ceasefire which may prevent further tragedy engulfing the Palestinian civilian population and save injury and worse to both Israelis in uniform and their fellow citizens in their homes."

"I am comforted by my confidence and hope that in time the Israeli and Palestinian peoples will have the opportunity to fulfil the Micah 4:4 vision of a land and two states 'where every person shall sit under the vine or the fig tree and no one shall disturb the other.' I am aware that my actions may be misinterpreted and misused by those who have no real interest in supporting peace in the region and would deny the right of the State of Israel to exist, and by those who, fearful of anti-Semitism and anti Israel activity, believe that this is a time for the British Jewish community to speak with one voice."

"I have only gone public with these serious reservations done so after much prayer, reflection and thought. And because I do not wish Israel’s relationship with the EU to be damaged."

Pre-Budget Report - The Day After

- Only £3 billion of the £20 billion "reflationary boost" of the pre-budget report is capital spending. If we want a long-term boost, for long-term economic benefit, this isn't the right way to proceed.

- Two Doctors points out that Brown's 2005 conference speech proclaimed Labour as the party of economic stability ... precisely when we had a housing bubble, and all the sub-prime-shenanigans were starting to build up.

- Hamish McRae, in the Independent, says that when Japan was in crisis, "the more the government borrowed, the more frightened people became and the more they felt they had to save." He goes on to express alarm that the government is talking up the crisis as unprecedented. "The danger of talking up perils is that people will believe them. It is the reverse of Franklin D Roosevelt's phrase that the only thing we have to fear is fear itself – between them, Messrs Brown and Darling are trying to make us more fearful, not less." It's the need for a crisis that I talked about a few days ago. Once the crisis is over, people will turn to the soft/cuddly leader for "peacetime" - Cameron - rather than the Churchill/crisis figure of Brown. Brown needs to keep us afraid.

- There was no emphasis on grassroots financial arrangements (credit unions, co-operatives) in the Pre-Budget report. We need to get people saving in a sustainable way again. Instead, Labour are turning to the very institutions, High Street banks, that got us into this mess.

The Pre-Budget Report

You can read the entire Pre-Budget Report here. He's a tricksy fellow, this Darling. He talks about a green component to his stimulus package, but buried in the detail is an expansion of the motorway network, as well as (4.61) a "review of the regulatory framework for UK airports" so that "airport operators are incentivised to deliver timely, efficient and necessary investment in new airport capacity."

You can see the Green Party's response here:

Dr Caroline Lucas MEP, Leader of the Green Party said: "The Chancellor’s plan to cut taxes to promote a consumer-spending boom is short- term thinking in the extreme. Even if it works, it will simply ship money abroad, as most consumer goods are imported, rather than supporting jobs here in the UK. More seriously, it also represents a return to the vicious cycles of debt and over-consumption that caused the crisis in the first place ... By putting capital spending into increasing motorway capacity, diluting the incentive to buy more efficient vehicles, and encouraging more aviation, Gordon Brown has shown his environmental incompetence, as well as his economic recklessness."

Brown Needs A Permanent Crisis

Jonathan Freedland: "Brown needs it to be 1943 for as long as possible. He needs voters to believe the crisis is ongoing, that we are still in the emergency phase. Ideally, he would go into the next election as Dr Brown, still wearing his white coat, still administering medicine to the patient on life support."

Unite And Bank Rescues

Christopher Hope in the Telegraph notes that Derek Simpson, the joint general secretary of Unite, said the partial bank nationalisations "must be bound to undertakings by the banks of no job losses, no repossessions and an end to the bonus culture." Unite donated £1.5 million to Labour in the three months to June of 2008. That was 40% of Labour's donations for the second quarter.

Mark Serwotka On Labour's "Workfare"

Mark Serwotka, general secretary of the PCS union:

"James Purnell's green paper, No one written off: reforming welfare to reward responsibility (pdf), proposes to abolish income support."

"By withdrawing benefit from parents and carers you also withdraw support from their children ... The government is already preparing to withdraw income support from lone parents whose youngest child reaches age seven. It is claimed there is sufficient childcare provision to enable these parents to work. But, in outlining the government's next steps on childcare, Gordon Brown has acknowledged that key pieces of the jigsaw may not be in place for some time."

"What we are seeing is an adoption of "workfare", a policy that Labour explicitly rejected in 1997. The government may say that this only applies to those who have been on jobseekers allowance for two years, but their proposals will mean the biggest group on such a scheme would be lone parents, resulting in a carbon copy of the appalling US menial labour schemes, that have failed women and their children in poverty. It was absolutely right that the TUC voted unanimously to oppose the proposals. The adoption of Tory slogans, such as "work shy Britain", still less Tory policies, offer no way forward in the fight against poverty."

Brown's Labour Conference Speech

The full transcript:

"What angers me and inspires me to act is when people are treated unfairly."

- Unless they are people inconvenienced by my 10p tax changes. Or those in an immigration detention centre. Or the people I've cut loose at Lloyds and Halifax Bank of Scotland branches around the country by not subjecting a merger to competition scrutiny.

"When I speak to victims of crime I get angry - because like them I know the difference between right and wrong."

- I'm going to expand our prison system to create even more schools for crime. More laws and more prisons and less retraining within prisons and less drugs treatment within prisons means a safer Britain, since they never have to come out, right?

"What happened with 10p, it stung me because it really hurt that suddenly people felt I wasn't on the side of people on middle and modest incomes - because on the side of hard-working families is the only place I've ever wanted to be."

- I thought you wouldn't notice.

"I want to give the people of this country an unconditional assurance - no ifs, no buts, no small print - my unwavering focus is taking this country through the challenging economic circumstances we face and building the fair society of the future."

- Since we've been funding peak oil resiliance projects around the country since 1997 (oh, we haven't), and since we've been funding flood defence preparation around the country since 1997 (oops). And since I put in place a robust regulatory framework for the financial services sector that has seen us through the first real test in our first 10 years in office (dang, missed that one too).

"Just as those who supported the dogma of big government were proved wrong, so too those who argue for the dogma of unbridled free market forces have been proved wrong again."

- Both myself and Ed Balls have put a "soft touch" regulation of the City front and centre in our policies for years and years. We now want you to forget this. Go to sleep, Britain, everything is ok.

"First, transparency, Second, sound banking, Thirdly, responsibility, Fourth, integrity, And fifth, global standards and supervision."

- I thought about Sixth, "not having banks have more debts than money in their vaults" or Seventh, "rolling out local currencies to reinforce local economies" or Eighth, "the Bank of England should put unemployment first, and incorporate house price inflation into its target," but those would be just wacky.

"When it comes to public spending you can't just wave a magic wand to conjure up the money - not even with help from Harry Potter."

- Infant mortality rose in the first 10 years of Labour, but don't tell JK.

"I know that this can be a British century and I'm determined it will be."

- Hold on, what about the rise of Asia a few minutes ago?

"When we talk about three million more people in work since 1997"

- Apart from immigration and the increase in public sector work ...

"When we talk about the 240,000 lives that are saved by the progress Labour's NHS has made in fighting cancer and heart disease"

- How many families will lose out on medical care when the never-never of the PFI-NHS nexus starts to constrict, like a python, around medical finances in Britain?

"For me, fairness is treating others how we would be treated ourselves. So it isn't levelling down it's empowering people to aspire and reach ever higher."

- Fairness is more brand-friendly than equality or redistribution.

"Fairness is why Harriet is introducing the first ever equalities bill. And let me thank her for her tireless work as deputy party leader."

- Yes, the grassroots are doing so well after her year as deputy leader that the party is 25% behind in the polls. Plus the 42-day compromise with the DUP may lead to an abortion compromise that will really tickle her.

"Our whole party is leading the fight against the British National Party."

- For the two weeks leading up to local elections ...

"Ed Balls and I will never excuse, explain away or tolerate low standards in education. So we will keep up the pace of reform: more academies, trust and specialist schools."

- This puts me in the same category as Campbell and "bog-standard comprehensives" ... only privately-invested academies (with control over staffing and curriculum) are the way forward.

"In just one year in the fight against hospital infections, we have doubled the number of matrons and achieved a 36 percent reduction in MRSA."

- Of course, we wouldn't have had to do that if MRSA and c.diff hadn't got out of control in the first place.

"I've always found it unfair that we cannot offer on the NHS the comprehensive services that private patients can afford to buy."

- But now, Alan Johnson will allow top-up services on the NHS.

"Providing free nursery care for more children is a cause worth fighting for. Providing better social care for older people who need it is a cause worth fighting for. Delivering excellence in every single school is a cause worth fighting for."

- Publically-delivered? Private-PFI delivered?

"And so let's hear no more from the Conservatives - we did fix the roof while the sun was shining."

- Eee-ernnnnnt. No. You save money whilst the sun is shining, so you can spend money whilst the times are tough. You spent the bank whilst the sun was shining, and now you have to borrow more in perilous financial times when you need to keep spending public money.

"The Conservatives say our country is broken - but this country has never been broken by anyone or anything. This country wasn't broken by fascism, by the cold war, by terrorists."

- Do you know your neighbour? Does your community do things together to fight climate change? Do you have enough community-focused police on your streets, enough programmes to keep youth employed/trained/busy/interested in their communities?

"David Miliband, Douglas Alexander and I will do everything in our power to bring justice and democracy, to Burma, to Zimbabwe and to Darfur."

- Finally, we could have some democracy in Britain -- with proportional representation for our elections (not just in Scotland's locals, or Euro elections, or Wales/Northern Ireland/Scotland/London). We could have some gender democracy in Britain, with 50% of the cabinet being women.

Full Steam Ahead For ID Cards

Labour is pushing ahead with its plans for national ID cards. Suppliers for the design and production of ID cards could be shortlisted in the next few months.

You can read about some of the problems behind the entire idea of ID cards here.

And Meg Hillier, a Home Office minister, said today that children as young as 14 could be required to carry one. Referring to the entire scheme, Hillier said: "It is full steam ahead ... In fact, the prime minister wanted me to do it quicker than it was possible."

See also: Youth revolt against ID card propaganda website

Gordon Brown And Government Debt

One of Gordon Brown's legacies -- whether he survives as Labour leader or not -- will be how he chained the public sector to paying for building new schools and hospitals on the never-never. It's a cosy "big three parties" consensus on PFI (the Tories began it; the Lib Dems just think it needs to be fine-tuned).

Fraser Nelson, in the Spectator's Coffee House blog, points out factual error after factual error in what Brown keeps saying about Britain's debt levels:

Brown: "In 1997 we came in and… the debt of the United Kingdom was 44%, 45% of national income, we cut that and it is now about, I think the figure yesterday was 37%, so that is a major cut in debt."
Coffee House: This is – how you say? – untrue. HM Treasury says net debt was 41.3% in 1997-98 Yesterday the ONS said net debt was 43.3% (report here, ONS here) and no you can’t wish away Northern Rock. What strikes me is the straight poker face with which Brown delivers his made-up figures.

Brown: "We have the lowest levels of debt of any of the major countries."
Coffee House: Really? The Maastricht-definition debt (ie, standardised) collated by the OECD puts Britain’s debt/GDP ratio at 47% for this year. Netherlands (43%) Sweden (35%), Finland (34%) Spain (34%) Ireland (28%). Outside Europe: Canada (22%) Australia (6.7% surplus).

Guido Fawkes chips in with:

Gordon Brown's Sky interview, where he blamed investment bank's off-balance-sheet liabilities for the credit crunch, was an unconsciously revealing moment. What is the trillion pounds of debt in PFI contracts and unfunded state pensions if not Gordon's very own off-balance-sheet liability? Gordon and Ed Balls designed the world's biggest off-balance-sheet structure ... it will have to be paid down by generations to come. Brown's legacy will be that British children, and their children also, will be paying off Gordon's debt bubble.

A bit more on this from Martin Bright (political editor, New Statesman) in March 2008:

Then there is the looming shadow of the government's Private Finance Initiative schemes, which were designed specifically to keep borrowing off the Treasury's balance sheet. These projects, which use private funding for large public projects such as schools and hospitals, will soon be included as part of the national debt to bring Britain in line with International Financial Reporting Standards. At the same time, liabilities from public sector pension schemes, which have been badly hit by the international credit crunch, will also contribute to the growing debt.

Some estimates suggest that the combined liabilities of pension and PFI schemes would bring the proportion of debt to 100 per cent of GDP.

What really matters is the attitude of global financial institutions to such profligacy, and investors' preparedness to put their money into new projects. In the new period of economic uncertainty, the British public would certainly begin to notice if plans for a shiny new hospital or school were put on ice. Already concerns have been raised about the slow progress of the government's PFI-funded Building Schools for the Future programme.

The real issue is that we don't know the full consequences of the slowdown for the public purse. New Labour has never been here before. A recent article by Paul Gosling in Public Finance magazine put it succinctly: "Underlying everything is a fog of uncertainty. The use of 'financial engineering' and the complex hedging of financial risk means there is very real confusion about exactly who has lost what from the sub-prime crisis - and that is affecting almost everything on the world's financial markets."

Labour Leadership Crisis - Part XIV

"Gordon Brown is like a Damien Hirst sheep ... Trapped in formaldehyde, he lacks the qualities needed for a bold leap that would free him from his own goo." - Alan Simpson, Labour MP

"Mr Brown was never loved, but he was respected and, to some extent, feared. Today, he’s not even laughed at. It’s worse than that. He’s started to be pitied, as the terrible strain of doing a job for which he is intellectually and emotionally unsuited creases his face. Labour is now so far behind in the ratings, the Tories will soon be hiring telescopes to locate the enemy. Much more of this and it will not be just the BNP that’s overtaking Labour in by-elections. Bananaman, who ran them close in the Henley poll, must fancy his chances at the next one." - Jeff Randall, Daily Telegraph

Geoffrey Robinson And Censorship

Harry's Place explores allegations that Gordon Brown tried to get Martin Bright, the editor of the New Statesman, fired.

The New Statesman's publisher is our MP for Coventry North-West, Geoffrey Robinson, one of Brown's oldest friends:

[Charlie] Whelan duly gave Thorpe and listening hacks a rambling monologue in which he insisted her husband and the father of her two children should be fired. "I'm no fan of Livingstone, but Martin Bright should not be political editor after what he did," he said. "I'm going to talk to Geoffrey ... He can't allow criticism of Gordon. If Geoffrey's got any sense, he’ll listen."

Resignation Of Labour Junior Minister

David Cairns has resigned. Of course, with a junior minister, a Labour vice-chair, and a former Home Office Minister asking for them, Labour's National Executive Committee has rejected calls to send nomination papers out to MPs.

John Hutton, on Andrew Marr this past Sunday, kept repeating that Gordon Brown had been elected leader.

No.

Brown gathered the requisite signatures to run for leader, and then kept hoovering up MPs until no one else could mathematically gather enough nominees to run against him. The Labour Party didn't want an internal debate about where to go after 10 years of Blair, and now, they're paying the price.

Jeremy Kyle And Labour

This week, it was revealed that the government wants to spend £400 000, so Jeremy Kyle can "highlight the role of the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) and explore how government policies can help people get jobs."

Meanwhile, in the real world, Elaine Peace, children's services director at the charity NCH:

"I think [Jeremy Kyle's show] is exploiting vulnerable young people ... But because of the extent of their problems, are they really able to consent to it rationally; are they really aware of the repercussions? It seems that these vulnerable people who are bullied and humiliated in their own lives are then bullied and humiliated on screen. The audience jeers, shouts, stamps. It's like a grotesque gladiatorial combat, watching people abuse each other."

Sounds like a perfect match for the DWP so far ...

And today, the Joseph Rowntree Foundation says that Kyle's show:

"could be viewed as a rather brutal form of entertainment that is based on derision of the lower-working-class population ... The inference to be drawn is that (those experiencing poverty) are not like us and are not deserving of what we have. Public support for anti-poverty measures is that bit more difficult to achieve when programmes such as the Jeremy Kyle Show continue to present those less fortunate in society as undeserving objects to be used for the purpose of public entertainment."

It's hard to take Harriet Harman seriously when, today at the TUC Congress, she talks about tackling the gap between the rich and poor.

Compass found, in 2007, that life expectancy had worsened under Labour, and that infant mortality in the working class had grown under Labour. The share of wealth owned by the top 1% rose, and the share owned by the bottom 50% fell. 1 in 7 children lived in bad housing after 10 years of Labour. Two-thirds of ethnic minorities lived in the 88 most deprived wards after 10 years of Labour.

For 11 years, Labour has maintained the pro-war, pro-privatisation, status quo. It hasn't changed society to benefit working people in Britain. If you choose Jeremy Kyle as your DWP messenger, it just confirms what people are experiencing in the 11th year of a Labour government -- Labour isn't working for working people.

See also: Chicken Yoghurt

The Return Of Boom And Bust

The interview that Alistair Darling gave to the Guardian on Saturday was interesting. He said the economy was at its worst point in 60 years. Libby Purves wonders why he chose 1948 -- the year of the nationalisation of the railways, the creation of the NHS, and an Olympics in London.

I think Darling, if shuffled away from the Treasury, might have enough backbone to do something damaging to Brown, like resign from the Cabinet.

Stephen King (the managing director of economics at HSBC) says that the real surprise of the past year is not the credit crunch, it's the inflation. House prices were inflated, and there were 5 times income, 100% mortgages on offer. But, King says that policymakers are "struggling" to deal with inflation since "its arrival was so unexpected." That's economist for "we don't exactly know what's happening either."

John Redwood has an interesting blog:

"Mr Darling has demolished the more important half of the New Labour offer, the promise of economic stability and efficiency. “No more boom and bust” was the most effective of all the New Labour songs."

"The soundbite worked brilliantly in 1997, as part of the reason for change. What change did people most want? 'No more boom and bust'."

"It worked well again in 2001. After all, leaving aside the disgraceful tax raid on the pension funds and the sale of the gold holdings, most of the period 1997-2001 was characterised by prudent management of public finances and produced a reasonable economic performance. Labour still allowed boom and bust in manufacturing, but that was disguised by the strength of services in general and London’s service sector in particular which helped the national figures considerably."

"By 2005 it should have been apparent to more commentators that we were back in boom and bust, but because we were enjoying the boom part of the policy, too many people were still prepared to ignore the obvious signs. I highlighted the excess and waste in public spending, the build up of far too much public borrowing, and the change in inflation targets to keep interest rates lower than desirable. I also highlighted wrong headed mortgage regulation and the Basel I banking regulations, which became an important part of the disaster."

"Mr Darling has told us it cannot work again. In Mr Darling’s words we have lurched from pretty good economic conditions to the “worst in 60 years” ... It transforms British politics. It now allows us a more honest debate about what went wrong and what needs to be done to put it right ... It will anyway confirm the public view that New Labour is dead – it has delivered neither economic efficiency nor social justice."

Labour And City Academies

Andrew Adonis, the schools minister, wants to accelerate the government city academies programme.

He says it could be possible to continue opening 100 academies a year after 2011, when the target of 400 city academies is likely to be met. Furthermore, he now says they should become "akin to private schools," with strict disciplinary codes, a broad curriculum and 12-hour days.

The Green Party is against the idea of city academies. Education is for the public good, and should be publicly funded.

City academies empower private-sector sponsors to have control over admission policy and the curriculum. State schools should remain under the democratic control of local education authorities.

Neither the Tories, nor the Lib Dems, are opposed to city academies.

But more importantly, when Gordon Brown became Prime Minister, did you think that key Blairite policies, such as city academies were going to be kept in place?

Labour's New Benefits Proposals

Everytime I see a proposal like this from New Labour, I think, "close your eyes, and can you distinguish it from something the Tories would do?"

Jon Sparkes, chief executive of the disability charity Scope, said he had "deep concerns about the tone of these reforms and the target-led ethos underpinning them" He added: "Disabled people face a myriad of barriers in finding employment, including negative attitudes from employers and inadequate social care support. Punitive measures against individual disabled claimants will do nothing to remove these barriers."

Gordon Brown As Seen In 2006

Reading Andrew Rawnsley back in March 2006, all the signs were there ...

A majority of the cabinet still wants to put off the day of a Brown premiership. The real fears revolve around the temperament and style of a Brown premiership.

There would be no check and balance to Prime Minister Brown because there would no longer be a Chancellor Brown. You can run the Treasury by concentrating on one big project at a time. You can also disappear from view when it is politically convenient. When a princess dies in the middle of the night, when a bomb goes off in the middle of London, there is no time to commission a review or draw up five tests to determine the response.

Gordon Brown is a hugely formidable Chancellor and yet we cannot be at all sure about what he would make of being Prime Minister. We don't know. What might just scare him a little is that he can't know either.

Unison Strike In Coventry

For the next two days, nearly 600 000 members of Unison will be on strike.

It will be one of the biggest strikes since the general strike of 1926.

The chief issue is the cost of living and wages. Inflation was 3.8% in June. That monthly figure was the highest since June 1992. The Local Government Association is offering 2.45% to workers. The LGA is crying poor, but if central government stepped in, they could pay public sector workers a living wage. It's a gendered issue as well. As many as 250 000 of those balloted earn less than £6.50 an hour. Of these, 75 per cent are women.

It's an EU-wide issue. Across the 27 countries of the EU, average wages have grown by just 6.7% between 2000 and 2007 -- less than 1% a year. There has also been, across the EU, a "widening gap between productivity improvements and wage growth, with real pay lagging around 10 points behind increased output per employee."

So, we have increasing worker productivity, rampant inflation, and poor treatment of women workers on minimum wages in the public sector. What should Labour do?

The New Statesman captured it well in a recent editorial:

If millions of workers lose purchasing power by below-inflation wage settlements, we will quickly be in a recession. Is it realistic, or even morally acceptable, to call on the lowest-paid not to defend their families' living standards?

Tony Blair continued a Tory tradition of disdain for public servants such as teachers, social workers and probation officers. Brown must break with it.

Fighting them will not win him votes from the middle ground, because anything he can do on that front, the Tories will always do better. George Osborne has already made it clear that his response to strike threats will be tougher trade union legislation.

For the past decade, the country has been held to ransom, with Labour's blessing, by the richest in society. That is why an appeal to those seeking only a living wage to act for the greater good sounds hollow indeed.

National link: Green councillors respect town hall pickets