The Threat Of Bird Flu

Once upon a time, the media was awash with concern over bird flu/avian flu/H5N1/1918 Spanish Flu. The threat hasn't gone away. An August 2007 summit of avian flu experts put the risk of a pandemic during the next year as between 5 and 20 per cent. The government's working estimate of the risk of a pandemic? 3%.

An article in the Times today highlights that the recent NHS spending review contains no reference to a possible avian flu pandemic or any indication of where funds could be found.

"In contrast to other developed countries, British stockpiles of the antiviral Tamiflu are less than half those of France and comparable to those of Slovenia and Algeria. To deal with the first wave of the pandemic, we need at least as much as France has. The Department of Health ordered 14.6 milion courses of Tamiflu in September 2006, enough for 25 per cent of the population ... We also need stockpiles of the antiviral Relenza, in case resistance to Tamiflu develops. But one disadvantage with Relenza is that, unlike Tamiflu, it does not penetrate the brain: in 1918 the virus left progressive, residual brain damage in some cases."

"When you insure your house you don't just go for the cheapest option, you go for the one that gives you enough cover."

"NHS contingency plans warn that a pandemic could kill as many as 750,000 people in Britain. Documents released alongside the risk assessment predict that hospitals would be overwhelmed, with one per cent of the population needing up to 10 days of intensive care. That would require 100 times more beds than are available."