8 of 8 polls were predicting an Obama win. It could be voters telling porkies, it could be a reaction against Obamamania. In any case, each primary or caucus gives Democrat and Republican candidates delegates to the nominating convention later in 2008. In the New Hampshire vote last night, despite edging the popular vote, 9 delegates went to Clinton and 9 for Obama, with 4 going to Edwards. So, it's one win (Iowa) and one draw (NH) for Obama. Nevada and South Carolina are next, and both are leaning Obama. The Democrat race will be decided by who can attract youth and independent voters on a consistent state-by-state basis, and if Obama can start appealing to the people who are voting for Edwards and Clinton (i.e. older, unionised, working class voters).
The Republicans are all over the place, though it's significant that Huckabee finished 3rd, and Giuliani was 4th or worse yet again. Time magazine on South Carolina's role in Republican primaries:
Lee Atwater, the party's one-time strategic wizard, designed the thing to give conservative southerners a say in the presidential process and offer churchgoers a power line to the White House. Then he put it on the calendar right after Iowa and New Hampshire, the ideal spot for the party establishment to kill an insurgent candidate's momentum. So it was that South Carolina stopped Bob Dole in 1988, handing the nomination to the establishment candidate, George Bush, the father. Then again in 2000, John McCain lost his cool and his lead in the face of a revolt from the party base, which chose another establishment candidate, George Bush, the son.
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